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08-SEP-2016, THURSDAY

In the US, initial jobless claims for the week ended on the 2nd of September are expected to have risen slightly, something that would leave the 4-week moving average relatively unchanged. Besides ECB President Draghi, we have one more speaker scheduled for today: UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond will appear before Parliament.

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08-SEP-2016, THURSDAY

1) Euro May Face Volatility Despite ECB Inaction 2) Are Investors Sitting Ducks Taking on Risk and Shunning Hedges? 1) Euro May Face Volatility Despite ECB Inaction The ECB monetary policy announcement headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Euro area financial conditions have stabilized having recovered from stress in the aftermath of the UK “Brexit” referendum.

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07-SEP-2016, WEDNESDAY

In the UK, BoE Governor Mark Carney will testify before Parliament. We expect the discussion to focus around the easing measures the BoE unveiled in August and to what extent they were necessary, given that the only data that had shown deterioration at the time were PMI surveys. Lawmakers are also likely to roast the

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07-SEP-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) GBP/USD Trades Lower Following UK Manufacturing Production Numbers 2) Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look to Fed Rate Hike Bets for Direction 3) Australian Dollar Little-Changed After 2Q GDP Data 4) The Central Bank Trade Evolved, Strongest with Dollar and Risk Aversion 1) GBP/USD Trades Lower Following UK Manufacturing Production Numbers The British Pound traded lower versus other major currencies

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06-SEP-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, the final estimate of Eurozone’s GDP for Q2 is expected to confirm the preliminary figure. The reaction in EUR could remain limited, unless we have a notable revision. We also get Germany’s factory orders for July. From the US, we get the ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the final Markit services PMI, both

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06-SEP-2016, TUESDAY

1) US Dollar Looks to Services ISM to Guide Fed Rate Hike Speculation 2) Gold Prices Look to Services ISM Data to Guide Fed Rate Hike Bets 1) US Dollar Looks to Services ISM to Guide Fed Rate Hike Speculation The final revision of second-quarter Eurozone GDP figures as well as Augusts’ Retail PMI roundup for the single

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05-SEP-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, we get the final service-sector PMIs for August from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. Given that these are expected to confirm their preliminary estimates, any reaction in EUR may remain muted. The bloc’s retail sales for July are coming out as well. From the UK, we get

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05-SEP-2016, MONDAY

1) GBP/USD Higher as UK Markit Services PMI Posts Largest Gain on Record 2) Crude Oil Snaps Losing Streak as Russia Backs Output Freeze 1) GBP/USD Higher as UK Markit Services PMI Posts Largest Gain on Record The British Pound spiked higher versus all other major currencies after today’s Markit/CIPS PMIs crushed expectations. The Services diffusion index, by

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02-SEP-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, the UK’s construction PMI for August is due out and expectations are for the index to tick up. Following the positive surprise in the manufacturing PMI for the month, we see a high likelihood for a similar upside surprise in the construction figure too. A notable increase in the index could

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02-SEP-2016, FRIDAY

1) US Dollar Looks to Jobs Data to Confirm Hawkish Fed Rhetoric 2) Emerging Currencies Won Market Share as FX Volumes Fell, Says BIS 3) EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Two-Month Uptrend Broken 1) US Dollar Looks to Jobs Data to Confirm Hawkish Fed Rhetoric Currency markets marked time in overnight trade, with investors seemingly unwilling to show directional commitment ahead

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01-SEP-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, we get the final Markit manufacturing PMIs for August from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. All of these indices are expected to confirm their preliminary readings, something that could keep the reaction in EUR muted, unless we have notable revisions. In the UK, the manufacturing PMI for

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01-SEP-2016, THURSDAY

1) GBP/USD Surges as UK Markit Manufacturing PMI hits Ten-Month High 2) Holiday Liquidity Drain Adds Another Complication to NFP Trading 3) August Almost Killed AUD/CHF 1) GBP/USD Surges as UK Markit Manufacturing PMI hits Ten-Month High The British Pound surged higher versus all other major currencies after today’s Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI increased by the joint greatest amount in

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31-AUG-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, we get Eurozone’s preliminary CPI for August. The forecast is for both the headline and the core rates to have risen, albeit marginally. Even though accelerating CPIs would be encouraging news for ECB officials, we view the risks surrounding these forecasts as tilted to the downside. Considering that Germany’s CPI rate

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31-AUG-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) US Dollar Looks to Fed Comments, ADP Data to Inform Policy Bets 2) EUR/USD Unfazed by German Jobs Report, Euro-Zone CPI Data Ahead 3) Gold Prices Hit Two-Month Low as US Dollar Gains on Fed Outlook 1) US Dollar Looks to Fed Comments, ADP Data to Inform Policy Bets Fed-speak continues to be in focus as the spotlight

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30-AUG-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, Germany’s preliminary CPI for August is coming out, one day ahead of Eurozone’s preliminary inflation rate for the same month. As usual, Germany’s regional CPIs will be released ahead of the country’s overall print. Thus, we will look at the larger regions for guidance on where the headline figure may come

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30-AUG-2016, TUESDAY

1) GBP/USD Little Changed as Data Shows Credit Demand Slowed Post-Brexit 2) US Dollar Looks to Fed’s Fischer for Fuel to Resume Advance 3) Evaluate Whether the Trade is Worth the Return Potential 1) GBP/USD Little Changed as Data Shows Credit Demand Slowed Post-Brexit The British Pound was little changed versus other major currencies after today’s UK mortgages and

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29-AUG-2016, MONDAY

From the US, we get personal income and spending data for July. Personal income is forecast to have accelerated, while personal spending is expected to have slowed slightly. Accelerating income is supported by a similar reaction in average hourly earnings for the month. As for spending, considering the disappointment in retail sales for July, we

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29-AUG-2016, MONDAY

1) Yen Drops on Dovish Kuroda Comments. Is the Euro Next? 2) Gold, Crude Oil Prices Still at the Mercy of Fed Rate Hike Bets 1) Yen Drops on Dovish Kuroda Comments. Is the Euro Next? The Yen underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency.

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26-AUG-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, we get Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence for September, France’s final GDP for Q2, and Eurozone’s M3 money supply for July. However, none of these indicators is usually a major market mover for EUR. In the UK, the 2nd estimate of Q2 GDP is expected to confirm its initial estimate. GDP growth

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26-AUG-2016, FRIDAY

1) US Dollar May Rise on Yellen Speech at Jackson Hole 2) Japanese Yen Unmoved After July CPI Report 1) US Dollar May Rise on Yellen Speech at Jackson Hole The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The moves mirrored a pullback in US bond yields, hinting the rate-sensitive currencies found support amid

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25-AUG-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, Germany’s Ifo survey for August is due out. Both the current conditions and the expectations indices are forecast to have risen somewhat, perhaps buoyed by the calmer than expected market reaction to the “Brexit” vote. This is also supported by the ZEW survey for August, which showed that sentiment among German

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25-AUG-2016, THURSDAY

1) Euro Eyes IFO Data, NZ Dollar Gains After Fonterra Outlook Update 2) Gold Prices Breach Range Support Ahead of Key Yellen Speech 1) Euro Eyes IFO Data, NZ Dollar Gains After Fonterra Outlook Update The New Zealand Dollar gained in overnight trade, with prices trading higher alongside the island nation’s bond yields to hint at a firming

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24-AUG-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, Germany’s final estimate of Q2 GDP is due out and expectations are for the figure to confirm its preliminary reading. From the US, we get existing home sales for July and the forecast is for a decline, albeit a marginal one. However, we do not believe that such a minor decline

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24-AUG-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) US Dollar May Rise Amid Pre-Positioning for Yellen Speech 2) Crude Oil Prices Weigh Conflicting Cues Before OPEC Meeting 1) US Dollar May Rise Amid Pre-Positioning for Yellen Speech The US Dollar corrected higher in overnight trade having traded broadly lower in the prior session. Seesaw price action since the beginning of the week seems to reflect

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23-AUG-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, we get the preliminary manufacturing and service-sector PMI data for August from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. All but one of the indices are expected to have remained unchanged or to have declined, albeit marginally. July’s PMIs showed that European businesses weathered the initial “Brexit” impact with

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23-AUG-2016, TUESDAY

1) Euro Likely to be More Sensitive to Soft vs. Upbeat PMI Data 2) Crude Oil Prices Plunge as Iraq Readies Output Boost 1) Euro Likely to be More Sensitive to Soft vs. Upbeat PMI Data The preliminary set of August Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar. The region-wide composite gauge is expected to show that manufacturing-

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22-AUG-2016, MONDAY

The economic calendar is very light today, with no major indicators due to be released. The only event that could attract some attention is a meeting between German Chancellor Merkel, French President Hollande and Italian PM Renzi. The talks will focus on migration, economic growth, and “Brexit”. Thus, any comments will be closely followed, especially

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22-AUG-2016, MONDAY

1) US Dollar Soars, Commodity Dollars and Yen Plunge on Fed Outlook 2) Gold Prices Drop as Fed Rate Hike Bets Swell Before Yellen Speech 1) US Dollar Soars, Commodity Dollars and Yen Plunge on Fed Outlook The US Dollar traded broadly higher against its major counterparts on building FOMC rate hike speculation ahead of a much-anticipated Janet

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19-AUG-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, we have a relatively light calendar in terms of economic releases. Germany’s PPI for July is expected to show that producer prices continued their fall, albeit at a slower pace than previously.

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19-AUG-2016, FRIDAY

1) Gold Prices Unimpressed by Fed-Speak 2) US DOLLAR – Slippery Slope Ahead 1) Gold Prices Unimpressed by Fed-Speak Gold prices continue to mark time, mirroring indecision in Fed rate hike expectations. Yesterday’s round of scheduled commentary from Fed officials took on a mildly hawkish tone. New York Fed President Bill Dudley doubled down on recent calls for

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18-AUG-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, the highlight will be the release of the UK’s retail sales for July. Given that this will be the first major indicator of how consumer demand fared following the referendum, we expect it to attract a lot of attention. The forecast is for retail sales to have risen by 0.4% mom,

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18-AUG-2016, THURSDAY

1) GBP/USD Surges After Post-Brexit Retail Sales Crush Expectations 2) US Dollar Drops on Divided FOMC 3) Crude Oil Prices Hit Monthly High, Gold Gains on FOMC Minutes 1) GBP/USD Surges After Post-Brexit Retail Sales Crush Expectations The British Pound spiked higher versus all other major currencies after today’s UK Retail Sales report printed figures significantly higher than expected.

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17-AUG-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, the UK’s employment report for June is coming out. The forecast is for the unemployment rate to have held steady at 4.9%, while average weekly earnings are expected to have accelerated slightly. Considering that these are pre-referendum data, and that some July data are already out, we expect them to attract

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17-AUG-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) GBP/USD Volatile on UK Jobs Data as Jobless Claims Fall 2) US Dollar on the Upswing as Markets Eye Fed Meeting Minutes 3) EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Soars to 5-Month High 1) GBP/USD Volatile on UK Jobs Data as Jobless Claims Fall The British Pound pushed higher versus other major currencies, but then quickly reversed for an overall

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15-AUG-2016, MONDAY

In a relatively light calendar session, the only noteworthy data we get are the US Empire State manufacturing index and the NAHB housing index, both for August. The forecast is for a marginal rise in both indices. Even though these are usually not major market movers, in a thin volume environment they could be more

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15-AUG-2016, MONDAY

1) Survey Shows Economic Forecasts for the Euro-Zone Stabilized Post Brexit 2) Gold Prices Await Fed Policy Clues, Crude Oil May Pull Back 1) Survey Shows Economic Forecasts for the Euro-Zone Stabilized Post Brexit According to a survey released by Bloomberg, economists’ forecasts for the Euro-Zone were little changed in August. The survey by Bloomberg News from August

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12-AUG-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, we get the preliminary GDP data for Q2 from Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. These figures are expected to show an economic slowdown in both the Euro area and its growth engine. Eurozone has already published a flash preliminary estimate, which showed a growth rate of +0.3% qoq from

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12-AUG-2016, FRIDAY

1) S&P 500: Notches New Record High, Short-term Techs in Focus 2) Silver Prices: Smack-dab in the Middle of the Range 1) S&P 500: Notches New Record High, Short-term Techs in Focus Yesterday, the market moved higher by a modest amount, notching another record closing print in the S&P 500. It’s been tough sledding for the index, but

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11-AUG-2016, THURSDAY

In a relatively light European calendar day with only secondary importance data, Sweden’s CPI data for July are due out. Both the headline and the core rates are expected to have declined. At its latest policy meeting, the Riksbank reiterated that it remains highly prepared to make monetary policy more expansionary if needed, even outside

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11-AUG-2016, THURSDAY

1) WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: IEA & OPEC Spur 5% Hope Rally 2) S&P 500: Whipsaw Price Action Dominates, Waiting for Clarity 1) WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: IEA & OPEC Spur 5% Hope Rally The intraday move in Crude Oil of a 5%+ gain was one of the most impressive moves in August and aligns with

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10-AUG-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, Norway’s CPI data for July are due out. Both the headline and the core CPI rates are forecast to have ticked up and to remain well above the Norges Bank target of +2.5% yoy. Interestingly, in its June Monetary Policy Report forecasts, the Bank assumed that it would cut rates by

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10-AUG-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) US Dollar Under Fire, NZ Dollar Extends Gains into RBNZ Meeting 2) Gold Prices Attempt Recovery, Crude Oil Eyes EIA Inventory Data 3) What the BoJ, ECB and Major Central Banks Do to Rest of the World 4) EUR/USD is Holding its 200 Day Average 1) US Dollar Under Fire, NZ Dollar Extends Gains into RBNZ Meeting The US

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09-AUG-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, the most noteworthy release may be the UK NIESR GDP estimate. This estimate will cover the three months from May to July and will be closely watched as it will cover for the first time post-referendum activity. In its previous estimate, NIESR noted that while April saw a large expansion in

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09-AUG-2016, TUESDAY

1) British Pound Little Changed After Worse Than Expected Trade Data 2) Crude Oil Prices Eyeing API Inventory Data After OPEC-Linked Jump 1) British Pound Little Changed After Worse Than Expected Trade Data The British Pound was little changed versus other major currencies (at the time this report was written) after today’s UK trade balance data printed worse

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08-AUG-2016, MONDAY

1) FTSE 100: Slowly Hurdling Levels in Low-Vol Environment 2) Sentix Index Bounces Higher as Brexit Impact on Expectations Falls 1) FTSE 100: Slowly Hurdling Levels in Low-Vol Environment On Thursday, the FTSE 100 received a spark off support around 6610 following the BoE’s decision to not only cut rates to a record-low 0.25% as expected, but to

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05-AUG-2016, FRIDAY

The highlight today will be the US employment report for July. The forecast is for nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 180k, considerably less than June’s astonishing surge of 287k, but still a strong reading that would point to further tightening of the labor market. Even though the ADP employment change was nowhere close to

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05-AUG-2016, FRIDAY

1) Silver Prices: Technical Outlook Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls 2) EUR/USD to Stage Near-Term Recovery on Dismal NFP Report 1) Silver Prices: Technical Outlook Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls Silver prices experienced a spike higher yesterday following the release of the BoE decision to not only cut its benchmark rate to a record-low 0.25%, but also expand

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04-AUG-2016, THURSDAY

We only get data from the US. Initial jobless claims for the week ended July 29th are expected to have declined somewhat, something that would cause the 4-week moving average to rise. We also get the nation’s factory orders for June and the forecast is for the figure to have fallen faster than the previous

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04-AUG-2016, THURSDAY

1) Australian Dollar Volatile after Worse Than Expected Retail Sales 2) EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: Pair Edging Lower From Resistance 1) Australian Dollar Volatile after Worse Than Expected Retail Sales The Aussie Dollar briefly halted its advance following a disappointment in Australia’s retail sales figures. In June, store transactions increased 0.1 percent (MoM) versus 0.3 percent expected and 0.2

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03-AUG-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, we get the final service-sector PMIs for July from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. Given that these are expected to confirm their preliminary estimates, any reaction in EUR may remain muted. The bloc’s retail sales for June are coming out as well. From the UK, we get

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03-AUG-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) What EUR/USD and the Majors Say About USDollar’s Tumble 2) Disappointing ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey to Fuel EUR/USD Advance 1) What EUR/USD and the Majors Say About USDollar’s Tumble Since last week, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has tumbled approximately 2 percent. That is a progressive slide for the Greenback – the most aggressive

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02-AUG-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, in Japan, the government is expected to announce the details of its highly-anticipated fiscal stimulus package. We expect the reaction in the yen to depend primarily on the size of the package, as well as its duration. From the UK, we get the construction PMI for July. This will be the final

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02-AUG-2016, TUESDAY

1) Australian Dollar Volatile after RBA Cuts Rates as Expected 2) Dollar Pulls Out of Dive, Oil Prices Pass 40, SPX Detached 1) Australian Dollar Volatile after RBA Cuts Rates as Expected The Aussie Dollar generated more volatility than follow through Tuesday morning in the after math of the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision to cut its

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01-AUG-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, we get the final manufacturing PMIs for July from France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. All the indices are expected to confirm their preliminary estimates, something that could keep the reaction in EUR limited, unless we have significant revisions. In the UK, the final manufacturing PMI for July is expected

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01-AUG-2016, MONDAY

1) US Dollar Hits Reset on Fed Rate Expectations Post-GDP 2) WTI Crude Oil Price Sets Sights on SMA Support 3) EUR/USD Prospects Turnaround Over Span of a Week after GDP Surprises 1) US Dollar Hits Reset on Fed Rate Expectations Post-GDP In the days ahead of Friday’s Q2’16 US GDP report, there was as high as a 65%

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29-JUL-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, Eurozone’s preliminary CPI for July is due out and the forecast is for both the headline and core rates to have remained unchanged. We view the risks around the forecast as skewed to the upside, considering that Germany’s CPI rate for the month rose above expectations, suggesting that a positive surprise

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29-JUL-2016, FRIDAY

1) Pound Unmoved as UK Sentiment Surveys Offer Conflicted Post-Brexit Views 2) WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: 3-Month Lows As U.S. Supply Glud Renews Sub-$40 Fears 1) Pound Unmoved as UK Sentiment Surveys Offer Conflicted Post-Brexit Views The British Pound offered a tepid reaction against its major peers after two UK July sentiment surveys crossed the wires. The

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28-JUL-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, Germany’s preliminary CPI for July is coming out, one day ahead of Eurozone’s preliminary inflation rate for the same month. As usual, Germany’s regional CPIs will be released ahead of the country’s overall print. Thus, we will look at the larger regions for guidance on where the headline figure may come

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28-JUL-2016, THURSDAY

1) Expectations Rise Further for BoJ, Increasing Yen and Market Risk 2) GBP/USD Little Changed as Nationwide HPI Beat Expectations 3) AUD/USD Drops on Optimistic July FOMC Statement 1) Expectations Rise Further for BoJ, Increasing Yen and Market Risk The pressure is building for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver more stimulus later this week. This time, it

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27-JUL-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, the UK’s 1st estimate of Q2 GDP is coming out. The forecast is for the nation’s growth rate to have remained unchanged from the previous quarter at +0.4% qoq. Nonetheless, we view the risks around that forecast as tilted to the downside. We believe that the uncertainty that dominated the pre-referendum

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27-JUL-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Fed Decision Attempts to Light Fire Under Dollar, S&P 500 2) Beware the Dollar, Pound and Aussie Volatility on Heavy Data 1) Fed Decision Attempts to Light Fire Under Dollar, S&P 500 The FOMC rate decision due today represents the event risk with the greatest fundamental and speculative reach in an otherwise stocked docket. That said, potential

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26-JUL-2016, TUESDAY

The only noteworthy data we get during the day are from the US. The preliminary Markit services PMI for July is expected to have risen, which could indicate that the US economy remained largely unaffected by Britain’s referendum outcome. New home sales for June are expected to have increased, while the SnP/Case-Shiller house price index

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26-JUL-2016, TUESDAY

1) USD/JPY and the Yen Crosses Likely to Lead FX Volatility 2) Dollar Rally Stalls Ahead of FOMC, US Stocks Rounding Off 3) EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Smallest 20 Day Range in 2 Years 1) USD/JPY and the Yen Crosses Likely to Lead FX Volatility USD/JPY and the other Yen crosses have offered FX traders some of the most remarkable

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25-JUL-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, we get the German Ifo survey for July. Both the current conditions and the expectations indices are expected to have declined. We believe that the outcome of the UK referendum is likely to have weighed on German business sentiment, as the future of the EU-UK trading partnership remains uncertain. The forecast

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25-JUL-2016, MONDAY

1) Pressure Back on EUR/USD as Market Sees Looser ECB, Tighter Fed 2) USD/CNH Technical Analysis: 6.6860 Support Turns Resistance 1) Pressure Back on EUR/USD as Market Sees Looser ECB, Tighter Fed On balance, the Euro steadied as we passed into the second half of July, although EUR/USD lost some ground (-0.54%), putting in its lowest closing prices

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22-JUL-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, Markit has announced that for the first and only time, it will release preliminary versions of the UK manufacturing and services PMIs for July. This is done in order to give BoE policymakers and investors an early assessment of the referendum’s immediate economic impact. The services PMI is expected to decline

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22-JUL-2016, FRIDAY

1) Stalled Dollar Breakout Defuses EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD 2) Traders Versus Investors, What to Expect from Our Market 1) Stalled Dollar Breakout Defuses EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD Extended periods of congestion can build considerable anticipation of explosive transitions to breakouts and even trends. When USDollar cleared resistance on its three-week range, traders were ready for the move to translate

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21-JUL-2016, THURSDAY

We get the UK retail sales for June and expectations are for headline sales to have fallen 0.6% mom, after rising 0.9% in May. Core retail sales are expected to have also fallen. The forecast is also supported by the BRC retail sales gauge, which showed a 0.54% fall during the month. We are not

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21-JUL-2016, THURSDAY

1) Euro, Yen May Fall as Pound Gains on Confidence-Boosting ECB Tone 2) Dollar Makes a Break, Will ECB Decision Force EUR/USD Next? 3) What to Expect from the ECB and Major Central Banks Ahead 1) Euro, Yen May Fall as Pound Gains on Confidence-Boosting ECB Tone All eyes are on the ECB monetary policy announcement. Euro-area financial conditions

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20-JUL-2016, WEDNESDAY

The European calendar is very light, as we mostly get second-tier indicators. The most important release we get is the UK employment report for May. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 5.0%, while average weekly earnings are forecast to have accelerated to 2.3% yoy from 2.0% yoy in May. Given that

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20-JUL-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) GBP/JPY at Brexit Levels- Elevated Risk for Declines on UK Employment 2) USDOLLAR – Beware the Fake 1) GBP/JPY at Brexit Levels- Elevated Risk for Declines on UK Employment GBPJPY has continued to straddle the Brexit close at 139.61 after reversing off median-line resistance early in the week. Heading into the UK employment report tomorrow, the pair

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19-JUL-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, we get the ZEW survey for July. Both the current conditions and the expectations indices are forecast to have declined, with the expectations print estimated to have fallen significantly. We believe that the outcome of the UK referendum is likely to have weighed on the sentiment of German analysts and economists,

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19-JUL-2016, TUESDAY

1) Euro May Fall as German ZEW Survey Highlights Brexit Spillover 2) Trading the Dollar, Euro, Pound and Yen Going Forward 3) New Zealand Dollar Sinks as LVR Limits Induce RBNZ Rate Cut Bets 1) Euro May Fall as German ZEW Survey Highlights Brexit Spillover The German ZEW survey of investor confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading

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18-JUL-2016, MONDAY

The Turkish authorities thwarted a coup attempt that began on Friday night and devolved into turmoil and violence. The Turkish lira collapsed, while the safe havens JPY and gold surged on the news as the coup attempt spooked investors and urged demand for safety. As the markets opened on Monday though, the Turkish lira recovered

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18-JUL-2016, MONDAY

1) Crude Oil Edges Lower as Turkey Supply Disruption Fears Recede 2) Survey Shows Italian Economic Forecasts Are Lower Across the Board 3) New Zealand Dollar Sinks as CPI Data Misses Estimates 1) Crude Oil Edges Lower as Turkey Supply Disruption Fears Recede Crude oil prices are diverging from the broader risk-on dynamics, with prices edging downward amid news

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15-JUL-2016, FRIDAY

From the US, we get June’s retail sales and CPI data. Headline retail sales are expected to have slowed, while the core rate, which excludes automobile sales, is expected to have remained unchanged. This suggests that the only grey spot in the report may be a slowdown in auto sales. As for the CPI data,

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15-JUL-2016, FRIDAY

1) Aussie Dollar Rallies as 2Q Chinese GDP Reduces RBA Rate Cut Bets 2) Dollar Pressure Building, Pound and SPX Rallies Extended 3) USD/CNH Failure to Hold Above the 6.7 Handle 1) Aussie Dollar Rallies as 2Q Chinese GDP Reduces RBA Rate Cut Bets The Australian Dollar rallied against its major peers after China’s second quarter (2Q) GDP data

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14-JUL-2016, THURSDAY

The Bank of England policy meeting will be the epicenter of market attention today, as this will be the first gathering following the “Brexit” vote. The official forecast is for the MPC to cut the Bank Rate today. Following Carney’s recent comments that monetary easing may be required over the summer, the implied probability for

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14-JUL-2016, THURSDAY

1) What to Expect from the Pound, Markets at the BoE Decision 2) Post Brexit Rebound at Risk Into Bank of England Meeting 1) What to Expect from the Pound, Markets at the BoE Decision Shortly after the tally was complete for the EU Referendum, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stated the central bank would do what

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13-JUL-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, Eurozone’s industrial production for May is coming out. In the US, the Fed will release its Beige book. This will provide qualitative information to Fed officials on how the US economy has performed since the latest FOMC policy meeting, though it is usually not a major market mover.

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13-JUL-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Identifying the Drive Behind EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD 2) S&P500 Pulls Yen Crosses Higher, Late Ambition but Same Conviction 1) Identifying the Drive Behind EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Depending on what Dollar-based major pair you were looking at this past session, your assessment of the Greenback’s performance could have been dramatically different. EUR/USD was little changed while USD/JPY posted

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12-JUL-2016, TUESDAY

In the UK, the BoE will release the minutes of the latest Financial Policy Committee meeting, where officials lowered banks’ capital requirements in an effort to boost lending to businesses and households. Given that even at the announcement of these measures the reaction in GBP remained limited, we expect a muted reaction at the release

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12-JUL-2016, TUESDAY

1) British Pound Soars Before BOE Sounds Off on Financial Stability 2) Crude Oil Prices Diverge from Risk Trends as US Dollar Gains 1) British Pound Soars Before BOE Sounds Off on Financial Stability Central bank commentary is back at the forefront for financial market. First, the Bank of England will publish minutes from the post-referendum FPC meeting

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05-JUL-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, the Bank of England will release its biannual Financial Stability Report. This report will indicate the biggest risks to financial stability following the “Brexit” vote and will outline the macro-prudential instruments that are to be used if necessary. BoE Governor Carney will hold a press conference following the release and market

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05-JUL-2016, TUESDAY

1) GBP/USD Levels Ahead of The BoE Financial Stability Report 2) AUD/USD Seesaws as RBA Opts to Keep Policy at Status Quo 1) GBP/USD Levels Ahead of The BoE Financial Stability Report The GBP/USD is trading around the 1.32 handle after seeing some pressure in early London trading hours. The British Pound has been consolidating versus the US

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04-JUL-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, the UK construction PMI for June is expected to have declined somewhat. Given that these are pre-referendum data though, we don’t expect any major market reaction. Eurozone’s PPI is also coming out. In Canada, the RBC manufacturing PMI for June is due out, but no forecast is available. Markets will remain closed in

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04-JUL-2016, MONDAY

1) USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Technical Levels Proving Influential 2) Expect Dollar, Euro and Pound Volatility in the Week Ahead 3) What Record Lows for Global Yields Means for the Market 1) USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Technical Levels Proving Influential The US Dollar is trading sideways versus the Chinese Yuan in offshore trade for the last couple of trading days, after

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01-JUL-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, we get the final manufacturing PMIs for June from France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. However, as these are expected to confirm the preliminary estimates, any reaction in EUR could remain muted. Eurozone’s unemployment rate for May is expected to have declined, but this is usually not a major

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01-JUL-2016, FRIDAY

1) Australian Dollar Brushes Off Worse-Than-Expected China PMIs 2) A Further Drive to Stimulus and Protectionism Lifting the Dollar 1) Australian Dollar Brushes Off Worse-Than-Expected China PMIs The Australian Dollar offered a tepid reaction against its major peers to Chinese manufacturing PMI readings. In June, the world’s second largest economy saw neither improvement nor a slowdown in the

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30-JUN-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, Eurozone’s preliminary CPI for June is due to be released. Both the headline and core rates are expected to have ticked up. The forecast is supported by a similar rise in Germany’s CPI rate for the month. This could benefit the euro somewhat, at least temporarily. The ECB will also release

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30-JUN-2016, THURSDAY

1) Currencies Take Cues from Sentiment Trends in Brexit Aftermath 2) Temporary or Permanent Shifts for Pound, Euro, Equities? 1) Currencies Take Cues from Sentiment Trends in Brexit Aftermath The major currencies were little-changed in overnight trade, with markets seemingly settling into consolidation mode. The US Dollar and Japanese Yen corrected modestly higher having broadly underperformed against their

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29-JUN-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, we get Germany’s preliminary CPI for June, and expectations are for an increase in the rate. As usual, Germany’s regional CPIs will be released ahead of the country’s overall print. Thus, we will look at the larger regions for guidance on where the headline figure may come in. A rise in

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29-JUN-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Wading Back into Pound Trading Post-Brexit 2) EUR/USD Ranging Post “Brexit” But This Won’t Last Forever 3) GBP/USD Driving Equities and Volatility, Likely to Persist 1) Wading Back into Pound Trading Post-Brexit Standing on the sidelines as the EU Referendum votes were counted was the risk-conscious trading approach last week. Yet, now after the outcome is known and

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28-JUN-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, EU leaders will meet for a two-day summit in the aftermath of Britain’s decision to leave the Union. UK PM Cameron already said that it should be the responsibility of the next Prime Minister to trigger Article 50, so he is not expected to negotiate the terms of the exit with

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28-JUN-2016, TUESDAY

1) British Pound May Bounce as Markets Digest Brexit Blood-Letting 2) Gold and Yen May Continue to Shine in Post-Brexit World 1) British Pound May Bounce as Markets Digest Brexit Blood-Letting A quiet data docket in European trading hour is set to keep the aftermath of last week’s UK referendumin the spotlight. The European Parliament will convene for

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27-JUN-2016, MONDAY

The only indicator we get is the US preliminary Markit services PMI for June, but no forecast is available. We have only one speaker scheduled for today: ECB President Mario Draghi will give a welcome address at the ECB’s “Forum on Central Baking”. Following the “Brexit” vote, any comments by the ECB chief regarding further easing

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27-JUN-2016, MONDAY

1) Crude Oil, Gold Prices Aim in Opposite Directions After Brexit Jolt 2) USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Pair Surging Higher Post “Brexit” 1) Crude Oil, Gold Prices Aim in Opposite Directions After Brexit Jolt Crude oil prices fell alongside stock prices while gold prices surged amid last week’s Brexit-fueled risk aversion. More of the same continued after the weekend.

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24-JUN-2016, FRIDAY

Its official Britons officially decided that they no longer want their nation as a member of the European Union. Given that until yesterday bookmakers’ odds as well as the movements in sterling both suggested a win for the “Remain” camp, the shift in market sentiment was extremely sudden. This only signals the beginning of a

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24-JUN-2016, FRIDAY

1) Chaos in the Markets as UK Votes to “Brexit” From the EU 2) European Market Reactions as London Opens Post “Brexit” Decision 1) Chaos in the Markets as UK Votes to “Brexit” From the EU he markets are seeing extreme moves today, as UK voters cast their votes and appeared to have decided to “Brexit” from the

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22-JUN-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, Sweden’s consumer and manufacturing confidence indices, both for June, are due to be released. Expectations are for a slight rise in the consumer confidence index, while no forecast is available for the manufacturing one. The nation’s unemployment rate for May is also due out and is expected to have declined somewhat.

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22-JUN-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Yellen Boosts US Dollar But “Brexit” Threatens Follow-Through 2) Pound, Dollar, Risk Intensify Focus on Approaching Brexit Vote 1) Yellen Boosts US Dollar But “Brexit” Threatens Follow-Through The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having outperformed in the prior session. The benchmark unit snapped a four-day losing streak as Janet Yellen testified in the US Senate.

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21-JUN-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, we get Germany’s ZEW survey for June and expectations are for a decline in both indices. We believe that the UK referendum-related uncertainty that has dominated market sentiment in recent days is likely to have been felt by German economists. Furthermore, the outcome of the referendum is likely to have a

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21-JUN-2016, TUESDAY

1) British Pound Seesaws on Conflicting Brexit Polls 2) Australian Dollar Rallies as RBA Minutes Reduce Rate Cut Bets 1) British Pound Seesaws on Conflicting Brexit Polls The British Pound continued to face sharp volatility as “Brexit” polls crossed the wires having gaping higher at the weekly trading open. An ORB survey showed that 53 percent of participants

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20-JUN-2016, MONDAY

The “Remain” campaign was seen as gathering momentum over the weekend, after a former Chair of the Conservative Party abandoned the “Leave” side and offered her support to remaining in the EU. Furthermore, “Bremain” momentum may have received an extra boost by polls released over the weekend, most of which indicated a lead for the

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20-JUN-2016, MONDAY

1) British Pound Soars as Polls Show Support for “Brexit” Ebbing 2) Gold Prices Drop, Crude Oil Gains as Polls Turn Against “Brexit” 1) British Pound Soars as Polls Show Support for “Brexit” Ebbing The British Poundsoared at the start of the week and theEurofollowed upward after new polling data released over the weekend showed ebbing support for

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17-JUN-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, Eurozone’s current account balance for April is due out, but no forecast is available. In the US, housing starts and building permits, both for May are coming out. The forecast is for building permits to have increased, while housing starts are expected to have declined. Given the mixed expectations, any reaction in

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17-JUN-2016, FRIDAY

1) Yen Falls as Euro, Pound Rise Amid Lull in Brexit-Linked Anxiety 2) US Dollar Unchanged Even Though CPI Data Disappointed 1) Yen Falls as Euro, Pound Rise Amid Lull in Brexit-Linked Anxiety The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade as regional stocks recovered, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency. The sentiment-linked Australian and Canadian Dollars followed shares

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16-JUN-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, the final Bank of England policy meeting prior to the “Brexit” referendum is likely to take center stage. The Bank is widely expected to remain on hold at this gathering, so the focus may be on the MPC votes and the minutes of the meeting. Just a few days ahead of

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16-JUN-2016, THURSDAY

1) Currencies to Look Past BOE, SNB as Brexit Fears Sink Sentiment 2) Japanese Yen Gains as Bank of Japan Leaves Policy Unchanged Again 3) How the Fed, ECB, BoJ and PBoC Hamper Each Other 1) Currencies to Look Past BOE, SNB as Brexit Fears Sink Sentiment The Japanese Yen moved sharply higher in overnight trade after the Bank

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15-JUN-2016, WEDNESDAY

The UK employment report for April is released. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged and average hourly earnings are forecast to have slowed somewhat. This could bring GBP under renewed selling pressure at the release, but we maintain the view that the currency is likely to remain more sensitive to incoming polls

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15-JUN-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) US Dollar May Rise as Fed Leaves 2016 Rates Outlook Unchanged 2) Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Fall in Tandem on Fed Rate Decision 1) US Dollar May Rise as Fed Leaves 2016 Rates Outlook Unchanged All eyes are on the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. The central bank will unveil an updated set of economic and

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14-JUN-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, we get UK’s CPI data for May, where both the headline and core rates are expected to have accelerated from previously. The forecasts are supported by the nation’s Markit services PMI survey for the month, which showed that firms increased their charges, linked in some cases to higher labor costs due

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14-JUN-2016, TUESDAY

1) GBP/USD Little Changed After the UK CPI Figures Miss Expectations 2) Gold, Crude Oil Price Volatility May Slow as FOMC Nears 1) GBP/USD Little Changed After the UK CPI Figures Miss Expectations The British Pound was little changed versus the US Dollar (at the time this report was written), after the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) printed

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13-JUN-2016, MONDAY

The British pound came under massive selling interest on Friday, after a new opinion poll placed the “Leave” campaign ahead by 10 percentage points. The survey showed that 55% of respondents favored leaving the EU and 45% were in favor of staying. This was the first time since November that a survey indicated more than

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13-JUN-2016, MONDAY

1) Crude Oil Prices Remain Vulnerable 2) Pound Drops on Brexit Worries 3) Yen Gains as Stocks Decline 4) Gold Rally May Stall 1) Crude Oil Prices Remain Vulnerable Crude oil prices continued to fall alongside the S&P 500 as expected in the final hours of last week’s trade as risk aversion struck financial markets. More of the

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10-JUN-2016, FRIDAY

From the US, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June is expected to have declined somewhat, but this is usually not a major market mover. Germany’s final CPI for May has already been released and confirmed its preliminary estimate, showing that the nation’s inflation rate remained flat.

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10-JUN-2016, FRIDAY

1) AUD/USD in Focus Today as Risk Trends Could Take Center Stage 2) Gold, Crude Oil Prices May Fall on Pre-Positioning for FOMC 3) USD/JPY Shows Which Is Stronger – Risk Trends or Monetary Policy 1) AUD/USD in Focus Today as Risk Trends Could Take Center Stage The AUD/USD currently trades slightly above 0.7400 (at the time this report

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09-JUN-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, the UK trade balance is expected to show that the nation’s deficit remained unchanged in April. From the US, we get initial jobless claims for the week ended June 3rd and expectations are for the figure to have risen somewhat, something that would cause the 4-week moving average to decline.

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09-JUN-2016, THURSDAY

1) What More Statistical Volatility Measures Say of SPX, FX 2) Yen May Extend Gains as Sentiment Sours 3) Brazil Maintains Benchmark Rate Amid Economic Distress 1) What More Statistical Volatility Measures Say of SPX, FX Volatility is as ubiquitous a speculative asset class as ETFs, commodities and even equities nowadays. In turn, measures like the VIX give conflicting

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08-JUN-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, we get the UK industrial production for April and expectations are for industrial output to have stagnated on a monthly basis. The forecast is supported by the manufacturing PMI for April, which dipped into the contractionary territory for the first time in three years. Nevertheless, given that the EU referendum is

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08-JUN-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Gold Prices May Fall on FOMC as Crude Oil Gains on China Data 2) Aussie Dollar Rally May Continue as China Data Boosts Sentiment 1) Gold Prices May Fall on FOMC as Crude Oil Gains on China Data Gold prices have stalled after mounting a sharp recovery after May’s dismal US jobs report crushed Fed rate hike

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07-JUN-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, Eurozone’s final GDP print for Q1 is expected to confirm its preliminary estimate and thus, we don’t expect any major reaction from EUR, unless we see a significant revision. From the US, we get the final labor cost index for Q1, but given that the final figure is expected to confirm the

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07-JUN-2016, TUESDAY

1) Aussie Dollar May Extend RBA-Linked Gains as Risk Appetite Firms 2) The Markets are Having Greater Influence Over Monetary Policy 3) Yellen Rejects Dollar Save, Brexit Talk Rears Pound Volatility 1) Aussie Dollar May Extend RBA-Linked Gains as Risk Appetite Firms The Australian Dollar soared against its major counterparts after the RBA appeared to settle back into wait-and-see

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06-JUN-2016, MONDAY

In the US, the main event will be a speech by Fed Chair Yellen before the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, where she is expected to speak about global conditions. Given that Yellen already expressed her view on future Fed fund increases a couple of weeks ago, when she said that a hike “would probably

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06-JUN-2016, MONDAY

1) Yellen in Focus as Dismal Jobs Data Puts Rate Hike in Question 2) The Global, Monetary Policy Implications of the Big NFPs Miss 1) Yellen in Focus as Dismal Jobs Data Puts Rate Hike in Question Following last Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report, the market traded heavily against the US Dollar and interest rate hike expectations for

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03-JUN-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, we get the final service-sector PMIs for May from Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, but as these are expected to confirm the preliminary estimates, any reaction in EUR could remain muted. We also get Eurozone’s retail sales for April. Norway’s unemployment rate for May is expected to have declined.

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03-JUN-2016, FRIDAY

1) Gold Prices Singularly Focused on Fed Outlook After US Jobs Data 2) Euro and Oil Quiet Through ECB and OPEC 1) Gold Prices Singularly Focused on Fed Outlook After US Jobs Data old prices are waiting for May’s US Employment report for direction after a nine-day losing streak gave way to consolidation. The metal’s reaction to the

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02-JUN-2016, THURSDAY

In the UK, the construction PMI for May is expected to have remained unchanged from the previous month. An unchanged print could keep any reaction in GBP limited at the release. Eurozone’s PPI for April is due out, but ahead of the ECB policy meeting this may pass unnoticed. In the US, the ADP employment report

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02-JUN-2016, THURSDAY

1) Will Risk Trends Keep Rising with SPX Near its Record? 2) Pound Tumble Faces Key Levels, Will the ECB Drive the Euro? 1) Will Risk Trends Keep Rising with SPX Near its Record? While the S&P 500 (and US equities) is somewhat unique amongst the high profile, risk-oriented benchmarks for its proximity to record highs; the sense

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01-JUN-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, we get the final Markit manufacturing PMI indices for May from France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. Since the final figures are expected to confirm the preliminary estimates, the reaction in EUR may remain limited at these releases, unless we have significant revisions. In the UK, the manufacturing PMI

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01-JUN-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Trading Conflicting Views on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY 2) Crude Oil Prices Drop on Fading Hopes for OPEC Output Freeze 1) Trading Conflicting Views on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY If you have a long-term or big-picture trade on a currency pair, does that preclude taking conflicting opportunities that arise on the short-term? A good example can be found in

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31-MAY-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, Eurozone’s preliminary CPI rates for May are expected to increase. Germany’s CPI rate for the month rose as well, which increases the odds for the bloc’s print to follow suit. Something like that could raise the likelihood for the ECB to remain sidelined in the coming months and thus, it may

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31-MAY-2016, TUESDAY

1) Pound Gains After Latest Brexit Poll 2) Gold Prices Attempt Bounce 3) Australian Dollar Rallies as Building Approvals Beat Estimates 1) Pound Gains After Latest Brexit Poll The British Pound  pushed higher in a move that may reflect easing “Brexit” fears after an ORB poll showed 51 to 46 percent lead for respondents favoring the UK remaining in

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30-MAY-2016, MONDAY

In Sweden, the GDP for Q1 is forecast to have slowed from the previous quarter. From Norway, we get the AKU unemployment rate for March and retail sales for April. Investors may focus mainly on retail sales, which are expected to have rebounded from the previous month, something that could support NOK somewhat. Markets will remain closed

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30-MAY-2016, MONDAY

1) Yen Falls as Stocks Rise, Canadian Dollar Tracks Crude Oil Lower 2) Crude Oil Prices May Fall in Pre-Positioning for OPEC Meeting 1) Yen Falls as Stocks Rise, Canadian Dollar Tracks Crude Oil Lower The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, falling against all of its top counterparts. Swelling risk appetite appeared to be behind the selloff,

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27-MAY-2016, FRIDAY

From the US, we get the second estimate of Q1 GDP and expectations are for economic growth to be revised up to +0.9% qoq SAAR from the first estimate of +0.5% qoq SAAR. Although this will still point to a considerable slowdown following a growth rate of +1.4% qoq SAAR in Q4, an upward revision

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27-MAY-2016, FRIDAY

1) US Dollar Gains as G7 Communique Bolsters Fed Rate Hike Bets 2) Ranking Dollar and Yen Options Against Yellen and Risk Scenarios 3) Trading GBP/USD and Pound Pairs Less than a Month to Brexit 1) US Dollar Gains as G7 Communique Bolsters Fed Rate Hike Bets The US Dollar traded higher against its top counterparts while gold and

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26-MAY-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, we get UK’s 2nd estimate of GDP for Q1. The second revision is expected to confirm the preliminary estimate, something that could keep any reaction in GBP muted. We would like to point out though, that data released after the first GDP estimate showed that the fall in retail sales during

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26-MAY-2016, THURSDAY

1) British Pound May Overlook UK GDP Data as US Dollar Rally Resumes 2) Dollar’s Technical Bearing Sets Stage for EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD 3) Equity Reversal Put on Hold While Dollar, Pound, Yen Position 1) British Pound May Overlook UK GDP Data as US Dollar Rally Resumes A revised set of first-quarter UK GDP figures headlines the economic calendar

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25-MAY-2016, WEDNESDAY

We only get Germany’s Ifo survey for May. The current conditions index is expected to have remained unchanged while the expectations index is forecast to have risen. We believe that investors are more likely to focus on the expectations figure, where we see increased downside risks. This follows from the ZEW survey for the same

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25-MAY-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Greece Receives Green Light For €10.3 Billion in Bailout Funds 2) Crude Oil Prices Aim Above $50 3) Gold Breaks 3-Month Support 1) Greece Receives Green Light For €10.3 Billion in Bailout Funds At a meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels, Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem confirmed that a deal was reached between Greece and its creditors to

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24-MAY-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, we get Germany’s ZEW survey for May. Both the current conditions and the expectations indices are forecast to increase marginally from the previous month. We believe that the stabilization in the global outlook following the financial turmoil in the first quarter is likely to have boosted the optimism of German analysts

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24-MAY-2016, TUESDAY

1) British Pound May Rise as BOE Officials Defend Brexit Outlook 2) Gold Prices on Pace for Longest Loss Streak in 6 Months 1) British Pound May Rise as BOE Officials Defend Brexit Outlook The British Pound outperformed in overnight trade, rising against all of its top counterparts. The move may reflect pre-positioning ahead of upcoming Parliamentary testimony

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23-MAY-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, we get the preliminary manufacturing and service-sector PMI data for May from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. All the indices are expected to show a modest increase, which could add to speculation that Eurozone’s GDP growth may remain resilient in Q2 and thereby cause the euro to

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23-MAY-2016, MONDAY

1) Euro to Look Past PMI Data, US Dollar May Rise on Fed Comments 2) Crude Oil Prices May Be Topping, Gold Momentum Ebbing 1) Euro to Look Past PMI Data, US Dollar May Rise on Fed Comments The preliminary set of May’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The regional composite gauge

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20-MAY-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, we get Eurozone’s current account balance for March, though no forecast is available. In the US, existing home sales for April are due to be released and the forecast is for a slight tick-up in the figure.

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20-MAY-2016, FRIDAY

1) Crude Oil and Gold Prices May Diverge on G7 Commentary 2) Dollar Rally Yet to Take Flight, S&P 500 Still Holds the Neckline 1) Crude Oil and Gold Prices May Diverge on G7 Commentary Crude oil prices recovered yesterday, with the sentiment-linked WTI contract rebounding alongside a rebound on Wall Street. The benchmark S&P 500 stock index

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19-MAY-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, we get the UK retail sales for April. The forecast is for retail sales to have rebounded following a sharp fall the previous month. However, we see ample signs for a smaller-than-expected rise in sales. Both the CBI and BRC retail sales gauges continued falling in April, with the CBI index

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19-MAY-2016, THURSDAY

1) US Dollar May Extend Gains on Hawkish Fed Commentary 2) Gold Breaks Range Floor, Crude Oil Prices May Have Topped 1) US Dollar May Extend Gains on Hawkish Fed Commentary A lull in high-profile event risk offers markets space for consolidation as investors digest yesterday’s volatility surge. Another round of Fed-speak may break the quiet however as

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17-MAY-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, the UK will release its CPI data for April. The forecast is for the headline rate to have remained unchanged, while the core figure is expected to have slowed somewhat. The difference in the forecasts may reflect movements in the prices of volatile items, such as gasoline. Even though expectations are

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17-MAY-2016, TUESDAY

1)  GBP/USD and AUD/USD Technically Loaded, Fundamentally Conflicted 2) The Wisdom of the Crowd Versus Conventional Wisdom 3) Gold Prices May Break Familiar Range on US Inflation Data 1)  GBP/USD and AUD/USD Technically Loaded, Fundamentally Conflicted There are a range of pairs that are carving out envious technical patterns; but the fundamentals are throttling their potential and

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16-MAY-2016, MONDAY

We have a light data calendar today, as we get only two US indicators. The Empire State manufacturing and the NAHB housing market indices, both for May, are due to be released but neither of these indicators is usually a major market mover. Markets will remain closed in many European countries in celebration of Whit Monday. We

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16-MAY-2016, MONDAY

1) USD/CAD Make or Break Levels- Constructive Above 1.2778 2) Record Trend Following Long Positions in Gold and Silver 1) USD/CAD Make or Break Levels- Constructive Above 1.2778 Earlier in the month we highlighted a key outside-day reversal off critical support in USDCAD with our focus weighted to the topside. The advance now looks to be challenging a

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13-MAY-2016, FRIDAY

Germany’s preliminary GDP data for Q1 have already been released and showed that the German economy accelerated to +0.7% qoq from +0.3% qoq previously, beating expectations of a +0.6% qoq rise. Eurozone’s preliminary GDP growth for Q1 is also coming out and expectations are for the preliminary figure to confirm the flash preliminary print and

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13-MAY-2016, FRIDAY

1) US Dollar May Find Support Despite Soft Economic News-Flow 2) The BoE Withholds Volatility, What to Do With Primed Pound? 3) Pound Left Undetonated, Euro Faces GDP, Dollar and Shares Adrift 1) US Dollar May Find Support Despite Soft Economic News-Flow On the economic data front, US news-flow returns to the spotlight as retail sales figures and a

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12-MAY-2016, THURSDAY

We get Norway’s GDP growth for Q1 and expectations are for a rebound following a contraction in Q4. Nevertheless, as we get this at the same time as the rate decision, we expect the release to pass unnoticed. Sweden will release its inflation data for April. The headline CPI is expected to have accelerated somewhat,

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12-MAY-2016, THURSDAY

1) USD and Equity Trends Broken, Pound and Oil Staged for Breakout 2) Pound Crosses Positioned for Breakout Before BoE’s Super Thursday 1) USD and Equity Trends Broken, Pound and Oil Staged for Breakout oth the Dollar and US equities saw their rallies cut down this past session, with the severity of the move dictated by their underlying

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11-MAY-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, we only get the UK industrial production for March and expectations are for a rebound following February’s tumble. The manufacturing PMI remained virtually unchanged in March. It then dipped into the contractionary territory in April, for the first time in three years. This makes us believe that the “Brexit” referendum may

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11-MAY-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Impressive Dollar Rally Cools, SPX Charges Equities and Risk Trends 2) What’s Driving USD/JPY and the Yen Crosses? 1) Impressive Dollar Rally Cools, SPX Charges Equities and Risk Trends We are seeing changing tides behind key market trends. The Dollar’s remarkably run through the past week stretched to a sixth straight day for the best run in

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10-MAY-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, we get Norway’s CPI data for April. Both the headline and the core rates are expected to have held steady at +3.3% yoy. Both rates are expected to remain well above the Norges Bank target of +2.5%, which increases the likelihood for the Bank to stand pat when it gathers on

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10-MAY-2016, TUESDAY

1) Yen Falls as Aussie Dollar Gains in Risk-On Trade, NZ Dollar Lags 2) Brazil, China and Emerging Market Turmoil Poses Broader Trouble 1) Yen Falls as Aussie Dollar Gains in Risk-On Trade, NZ Dollar Lags The Yen underperformed in overnight trade as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency. The risk-on

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09-MAY-2016, MONDAY

Oil prices opened with a gap higher on Monday as the raging wildfires in Canada grew even further during the weekend, curbing the nation’s oil production. Prices could have also received a boost after China’s trade data for April showed that crude oil imports rose in April, offering some hope that demand remains elevated in

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09-MAY-2016, MONDAY

1) US Dollar May Rise if Fed Comments Point to Tighter Job Market 2) Euro Lacking Direction as Data Momentum Improves, Brexit Concerns Ebb 1) US Dollar May Rise if Fed Comments Point to Tighter Job Market A relatively quiet economic data docket in European trading hours puts Fed-speak in the spotlight. Comments from Charles Evans and Neel

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06-MAY-2016, FRIDAY

US jobs report for April Today, investors’ gaze will be fixed on the US employment report for April. The forecast is for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 202k, down from 215k in March. Both the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are expected to have remained unchanged at 5.0% and +0.3% mom respectively. While the

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06-MAY-2016, FRIDAY

1) Will Weak US Jobs Data Sink the US Dollar?  2) NFP Strategy Focus on Dollar’s Fed Timing or Dow’s Risk Response? 1) Will Weak US Jobs Data Sink the US Dollar?  Financial markets are likely to look past a lackluster economic calendar in European trading hours to focus on the much-anticipated release of April’s US Employment figures.

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05-MAY-2016, THURSDAY

During the European morning, the only indicator worth mentioning is the UK service-sector PMI for April and expectations are for the index to decline. Both the manufacturing and the construction PMIs for the month disappointed, with the manufacturing index entering the contractionary territory for the first time in over three years. This suggests that overall

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05-MAY-2016, THURSDAY

1) US Dollar Falls, Commodity Currencies Rise as Payrolls Data Looms 2) The Difficulty with Top Hedge Fund Managers’ Trade Ideas 1) US Dollar Falls, Commodity Currencies Rise as Payrolls Data Looms The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars advanced in overnight trade. The sentiment-linked currencies shrugged off weakness across Asian stock exchanges – where prices seemed to

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04-MAY-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, we get the final service-sector and composite PMIs for April from the countries we got the manufacturing data on Monday. The final forecasts for France, Germany and Eurozone are the same as the initial estimates, so we do not expect any major reaction from EUR at these releases, unless we have

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04-MAY-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) US Dollar at Risk on Soft Data But Risk Aversion May Cap Losses 2) Trend Potential Behind Abrupt Dollar Rally, Aussie Plunge? 3) Individual Technical Analysis for Dollar, Euro, Yen 1) US Dollar at Risk on Soft Data But Risk Aversion May Cap Losses The Japanese Yen and the New Zealand Dollar faced selling pressure in overnight trade.

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03-MAY-2016, TUESDAY

The calendar gets very light during the European day, with the only noteworthy indicator being the UK manufacturing PMI for April. Economic activity has slowed to 0.4% qoq in Q1 and we believe that growth is likely to remain subdued heading into the “Brexit” ballots. The index is expected to have risen slightly, to 51.2

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03-MAY-2016, TUESDAY

1) Pound May Rise on PMI Data, Fed-Speak to Inform Rate Hike Bets 2) Aussie Dollar Little Moved After Caixin PMI Release, RBA Ahead 3) Dollar Continues to Dive While Yen Goads BoJ 1) Pound May Rise on PMI Data, Fed-Speak to Inform Rate Hike Bets UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The

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02-MAY-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, we get the final manufacturing PMIs for April from France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. As usual the final forecasts are expected to confirm the initial estimates. Therefore the market reaction on these news is likely to be muted, unless we have huge revisions from the preliminary figures. Markets

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02-MAY-2016, MONDAY

1) USDOLLAR at Support as Euro, Yen, and Gold Prices Near Major Levels 2) Gold Prices Surge But US Jobs Data Threatens Follow-Through 1) USDOLLAR at Support as Euro, Yen, and Gold Prices Near Major Levels After a week-plus away from the markets, it seems that risk was never given the “all clear” that was so close to

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29-APR-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, we get a plethora of key indicators from Eurozone. The bloc’s preliminary CPI for April is coming out and expectations are for the headline rate to have slipped into the negative territory, while the core figure is expected to have remained unchanged. Germany’s preliminary CPI rate for the same month fell

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29-APR-2016, FRIDAY

1) Dollar and Yen Crosses Threatening Full-Blown Bear Trends 2) Will the USDJPY’s Extreme Drop Stall or Revive Bear Trend? 1) Dollar and Yen Crosses Threatening Full-Blown Bear Trends The Yen crosses were upended by the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold steady on its accommodative monetary policy. With USDJPY leading with one of its biggest declines in

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28-APR-2016, THURSDAY

In the US, the 1st estimate of Q1 GDP is coming out and expectations are for a considerable slowdown. The forecast is supported by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, which estimates that GDP growth was a mere +0.3% qoq SAAR in Q1 from +1.4% qoq SAAR previously. A variety of key economic indicators have disappointed

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28-APR-2016, THURSDAY

1) Euro to Look Past German Data, US Dollar May Rise on Q1 GDP 2) Yen Soars as Bank of Japan Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged 1) Euro to Look Past German Data, US Dollar May Rise on Q1 GDP The preliminary set of April’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year

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27-APR-2016, WEDNESDAY

The spotlight will most likely be on the BoJ, where we expect officials to introduce further stimulus at this meeting. We believe that the nation’s weakening manufacturing outlook, a contraction in Q4 GDP, a flat core CPI in February, and the recent appreciation of the yen are all factors that may push officials to pull

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27-APR-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Pound May Ignore Soft GDP Data, US Dollar Aims Higher on FOMC 2) Dollar and Equities Strategy Heading for Fed Decision 3) Fed, BoJ and RBNZ Decisions Ahead Threaten Heavy FX Volatility 1) Pound May Ignore Soft GDP Data, US Dollar Aims Higher on FOMC The rate-setting FOMC committee is expected to keep the benchmark lending rate unchanged,

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26-APR-2016, TUESDAY

The most noteworthy release will be the US durable goods orders for March. Expectations are for both the headline and the core figures to have risen following sharp falls in February. A potential rise in durable goods orders is supported by a surge in civilian aircraft orders during March, and the new orders component of

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26-APR-2016, TUESDAY

1) Gold Price Rises while Oil Price Dip with Risk Assets 2) Earnings in Focus as FX Markets Look to Risk Trends for Guidance 1) Gold Price Rises while Oil Price Dip with Risk Assets Gold prices edged up towards $1243 amid a retreat of risk assets and lower expectation for a rate rise by the Fed. Asian

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25-APR-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, we get Germany’s Ifo survey for April. The current conditions index is expected to have remained unchanged while the expectations index is forecast to have risen. We believe that as long as the expectations print continues to rise, a soft current assessment index may not be of much concern to investors.

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25-APR-2016, MONDAY

1) Japanese Yen Rebounds After Suffering Largest Drop in 18 Months 2) Euro Could Suffer as Central Bank Policies Provoke Inflation Protection 1) Japanese Yen Rebounds After Suffering Largest Drop in 18 Months The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising against all of its G10 counterparts in a move that appeared corrective following Friday’s sharp selloff. The

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22-APR-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, we get the preliminary manufacturing and service-sector PMI data for April from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. Expectations are for all the indices to have risen somewhat. We believe that a potential stabilization in the global outlook may have caused business optimism to rise on hopes that

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22-APR-2016, FRIDAY

1) Currencies at the Mercy of Risk Sentiment Swings into the Weekend 2) Equities Falter At Multi-Month Highs, ECB Hold Doesn’t Help Euro 3) Gold Prices Ease as USD Recovers, Oil Price Wanes 1) Currencies at the Mercy of Risk Sentiment Swings into the Weekend The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed while the anti-risk Japanese Yen

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21-APR-2016, THURSDAY

From the UK we get retail sales for March and the forecast is for both the headline and the core figures to have fallen on a monthly basis for a second consecutive month. Both the CBI and BRC retail sales gauges fell in March while consumer sentiment surveys were discouraging overall, with the TR/IPSOS index

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21-APR-2016, THURSDAY

1) Euro, Sentiment Trends Hinge on ECB Readiness to Boost Stimulus 2) Oil Rally Continues Sans Rumor Drive, ECB A Euro Risk Ahead 3) Currency Headwinds Continue to Impact US Earnings 1) Euro, Sentiment Trends Hinge on ECB Readiness to Boost Stimulus The monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank headlines the economic calendar. Economists expect officials will

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20-APR-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, we get the UK employment report for February. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged and average weekly earnings are forecast to have accelerated somewhat. This forecast is supported by the services-PMI report for the same month, which showed that average prices rose, mainly due to gains in salaries.

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20-APR-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Currency Markets Look to US Data, Q1 Earnings for Direction Cues 2) Oil Prices Aren’t the Only Systemic Risk Out There 3) Gold Prices Hike on Weak USD 1) Currency Markets Look to US Data, Q1 Earnings for Direction Cues The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours. UK jobless claims figures and comments from Bank

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19-APR-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, Germany’s ZEW survey for April is forecast to show an increase in the expectations index, but a marginal decline in the current conditions index. We believe that investors may focus primarily on the expectations index, where a possible increase could indicate optimism among German investors on the global outlook over coming

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19-APR-2016, TUESDAY

1) Dramatic Volatility from Oil, CAD, Stocks Indicative of Troubling Conditions 2) Risk Bearings Hold Despite Volatility, Oil and Greece Headlines 3) Oil Price Sinks as Output Deal Fails 1) Dramatic Volatility from Oil, CAD, Stocks Indicative of Troubling Conditions For those trading during the opening hours of Monday’s session, there was considerable volatility on the back of the

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18-APR-2016, MONDAY

Major OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers failed to strike an output freeze deal on Sunday, as Saudi Arabia reasserted its demand for Iran to join in for any freeze agreement. This came as a surprise to market participants, especially given last week’s rumors that a deal would not necessarily depend on Iran’s participation, and caused

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18-APR-2016, MONDAY

1) New Zealand Dollar Gains as CPI Data Decreases RBNZ Rate Cut Bets 2) Oil Futures Gap Down as Doha Oil Freeze Meeting Fails on Accord 1) New Zealand Dollar Gains as CPI Data Decreases RBNZ Rate Cut Bets The New Zealand Dollar gained against its major peers after the nation’s CPI data crossed the wires. The move

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15-APR-2016, FRIDAY

In the US, the Empire State manufacturing index for April is forecast to show that New York’s manufacturing activity continues to improve. Industrial production for March is expected to have continued falling, but at a slower pace than the previous month. The preliminary U of M consumer sentiment index for April is also coming out

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15-APR-2016, FRIDAY

1) Competitive Monetary Policy Creating Market Volatility, Distortion 2) Awaiting Break from Stocks, Dollar Fed Drive, Yen Intervention 1) Competitive Monetary Policy Creating Market Volatility, Distortion Accommodative monetary policy is aimed at returning stability to the markets and promoting economic growth. However, in a global system where the net policy effort grows more extreme; problems are increasing. One

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14-APR-2016, THURSDAY

From the US, we get CPI data for March. The headline CPI is expected to have accelerated, while the core rate is forecast to have remained unchanged. This suggests to us that the acceleration in the headline figure may reflect price increases in volatile items such as energy or food, rather than an improvement in

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14-APR-2016, THURSDAY

1) Volatility Across Markets, FX Reflects A More Global View 2) Gold, Oil Prices Top Out 1) Volatility Across Markets, FX Reflects A More Global View Volatility measures across asset classes have once again ebbed in the course of the market’s manic-crisis behavior as of late. If the VIX and cross asset counterparts are indeed reflecting sentiment, it

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13-APR.2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day we get France’s final CPI for March. As usual, the final figure is expected to confirm the preliminary estimate and thus the reaction in EUR is likely to remain limited at the release. From Eurozone, industrial production for February is expected to have fallen, a turnaround from January’s sharp surge. In

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13-APR.2016, WEDNESDAY

1) IMF Stokes Global Fears, US Oil Prices Clear 200 Day Average 2) Big Picture Technicals from USDJPY to SPX to Oil 1) IMF Stokes Global Fears, US Oil Prices Clear 200 Day Average The IMF’s laundry list of concerns late last year further destabilized already-fragile sentiment in the financial system. Since then, we’ve experienced two dramatic razings

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12-APR-2016, TUESDAY

In the UK, both the headline and core figures for March are expected to have accelerated. Given that the latest upturn in the CPI was considered temporary due to energy related effects, an acceleration in the March figures could signify that the underlying trend of inflation has indeed started moving in the desirable direction and

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12-APR-2016, TUESDAY

1) Will Growth Fears Finally Overwhelm Stocks, Change USD’s Tack? 2) Growth, Earnings and Credit Matter for Market Trends 1) Will Growth Fears Finally Overwhelm Stocks, Change USD’s Tack? The benchmarks are putting pressure on market confidence. While many risk-oriented assets were either little changed or higher on the day Monday, the S&P 500 positioned itself into a

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11-APR-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, in Japan, the foreign ministers from the G7 economies will conclude their two-day meeting in Hiroshima. In the UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will present an analysis from the Treasury on the costs and benefits of the UK June 23 referendum. We expect that such a report may place

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11-APR-2016, MONDAY

1) EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Reversal Brewing Ahead? 2) The Practicality of FX Intervention: Japan to China to Mexico 1) EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Reversal Brewing Ahead? The Euro continues to consolidate in a narrow range after hitting the highest level since mid-October 2015 against the US Dollar. Early signs of negative RSI divergence hint upside momentum may

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08-APR-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, we get the UK industrial production for February and expectations are for the figure to have slowed. Given that the manufacturing PMI for the same month tumbled to a 34-month low, driven by weakness in both domestic and foreign demand, we expect that industrial production is likely to follow suit. Let’s

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08-APR-2016, FRIDAY

1) Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season 2) What Would Keep A Bear From Building Into a USDJPY Short? 3) USDOLLAR Near Term Trade is a Hot Mess 1) Commodity Dollars at Risk on Dour Mood Before 1Q Earnings Season The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rose traded higher alongside S&P 500

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07-APR-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, the ECB releases the minutes of its March policy meeting, where officials introduced an easing package much more aggressive than market expectations. While the minutes of the ECB meetings do not usually impact the euro significantly, given the magnitude of the latest barrage of easing measures, it would be interesting to

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07-APR-2016, THURSDAY

1) Why More Monetary Policy Won’t Work but Central Banks Keep It 2) FOMC Minutes Excite Markets But Offer No Clear Dollar 1) Why More Monetary Policy Won’t Work but Central Banks Keep It There are limitations to monetary policy that are growing increasingly obvious to officials and market participants. The upgrades from the ECB and BoJ are

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06-APR-2016, WEDNESDAY

In the US, the FOMC will release the minutes from its March policy meeting, where the Committee remained on hold and reduced by half its median Fed fund rate forecast for 2016. Following the meeting, we got a panoramic view of the prevailing opinions among officials, in the form of speakers. While many regional Fed

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06-APR-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Dollar Rebound Hits Key EURUSD, USDJPY Levels While SPX Tests Risk 2) When Contrarianism Turns to Complacency and Conspiracy in SPX, USDJPY 1) Dollar Rebound Hits Key EURUSD, USDJPY Levels While SPX Tests Risk The tension continues to build for the capital and FX market benchmarks. For global shares, the S&P 500 has further slid into the

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05-APR-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, we get the final service-sector PMIs for March from the countries we got the manufacturing data last week. The final forecasts for France, Germany and Eurozone are the same as the initial estimates, so we do not expect any major reaction from EUR at these releases, unless we have significant revisions.

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05-APR-2016, TUESDAY

1) IMF Financial Stability Report Warns of Increased China, EM Risk 2) Largest Long Position for Gold Trend Followers Since November 2012 1) IMF Financial Stability Report Warns of Increased China, EM Risk In two of the pre-released chapters of the IMF’s upcoming financial stability report (the full report will be released on April 13), emerging market spillover

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04-APR-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, we get the UK construction PMI for March and expectations are for a slight decline. However, given that the manufacturing PMI rose on Friday and that expectations for the services index are for a rise too, we see the likelihood for an improvement here as well. This could support somewhat the

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04-APR-2016, MONDAY

1) British Pound May Rise on UK PMI After Friday Selloff 2) Euro-Zone Lagging Behind Other Economic Blocks in April Says Sentix 1) British Pound May Rise on UK PMI After Friday Selloff a relatively quiet economic calendar is headlined by UK Construction PMI figures. Broadly speaking, UK economic news-flow has improved relative to consensus forecasts over the

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01-APR-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, we get the final manufacturing PMIs for March from France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. As usual the final forecasts are the same as the initial estimates, thus the market reaction on these news is usually limited, unless we have a huge revision from the preliminary figures. Eurozone’s unemployment

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01-APR-2016, FRIDAY

1) The Risk and Opportunity In Evaluating USDJPY 2) WTI Crude Oil Price Sitting On A Crucial Polarity Point 1) The Risk and Opportunity In Evaluating USDJPY It is important to always consider the scenarios that could work against a trade you intend to take. It’s also good practice to regularly re-visit current to trades to ensure they

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31-MAR-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, Eurozone’s preliminary CPI rate for March is expected to rise slightly, but to remain in the negative territory. The headline CPI rate is expected to rise to -0.1% yoy from -0.2% yoy, while the core rate is forecast to increase to +0.9% yoy from +0.8% yoy. Given that the German preliminary

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31-MAR-2016, THURSDAY

1) Gold Price Slips on Solid US Data 2) Oil Inventory at Record High 1) Gold Price Slips on Solid US Data Gold prices hit a one-month low of $1208.38 as signs of renewed strength in U.S. labour market and a rally in equities curbed demand for haven assets. After a strong ADP print of 200,000 versus

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30-MAR-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, Germany’s flash CPI for March is expected to show that consumer prices continued to fall in Eurozone’s growth engine, but at a slower pace than previously. As usual, Germany’s regional CPIs will be released ahead of the country’s overall print. Thus, we will look at the larger regions for guidance on

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30-MAR-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Fed, ECB and Major Central Banks Resort to Forward Guidance 2) Gold Price Jumps after Yellen Dovish Remarks 1) Fed, ECB and Major Central Banks Resort to Forward Guidance Both the ECB and Fed are steering monetary policy in an effort to bolster confidence. Given they are on opposite extremes of the spectrum – one has thrown

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29-MAR-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, Sweden’s retail sales for February are expected to have slowed a bit. From Eurozone, the M3 money supply for February is expected to have remained unchanged. In the UK, the BoE’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) will publish its March meeting statement. Although this is usually not a major market mover, given

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29-MAR-2016, TUESDAY

1) US Dollar May Rise as Fed Commentary Boosts Rate Hike Outlook 2) Think Twice Before Abandoning Your Strategy 3) Gold Price Steadies before Fed speak while Oil Prices Fade 1) US Dollar May Rise as Fed Commentary Boosts Rate Hike Outlook Comments from Federal Reserve officials are in the spotlight as the spectrum of global financial markets return

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28-MAR-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, markets will remain closed in most European countries, in celebration of Easter Monday. Markets will be open in the US though, from where we get personal income and personal spending for February. Both figures are expected to have slowed to +0.1% mom from +0.5% mom previously. The personal income forecast is

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28-MAR-2016, MONDAY

1) US Dollar May Rise as PCE Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets 2) EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Breach Monthly Support 1) US Dollar May Rise as PCE Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets The Japanese Yen underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The played out as Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index traded higher, undermining demand for the

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25-MAR-2016, FRIDAY

Markets will remain closed in most European countries, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, in celebration of Good Friday. Despite the stock market holidays though, we will receive some data from France and the US. During the European day, France’s final Q4 GDP has already been released and confirmed its preliminary estimate. In the US,

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25-MAR-2016, FRIDAY

1) Dollar and Risk Setups Lose Power Before Definitive Move 2) USDOLLAR Perspective on this Week’s Rally 1) Dollar and Risk Setups Lose Power Before Definitive Move If technicals were the only thing guiding the markets, we would be positioned for some remarkable trading opportunities. However, market conditions are perhaps a more elemental factor to

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24-MAR-2016, THURSDAY

In Eurozone, the ECB will release its economic bulletin for March. This presents the economic and monetary information that is the basis for the Governing Council’s policy decisions and is released two weeks after each policy meeting. Although we don’t expect any major reaction from the euro, it will be interesting to see what kind

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24-MAR-2016, THURSDAY

1) Beware, Confidence and Risk Appetite Have Recovered Too Quickly 2) Gold Price Slumps on Hawkish Remarks from Fed Members 1) Beware, Confidence and Risk Appetite Have Recovered Too Quickly There is little doubt that risk appetite has recovered these past weeks. Not only have we seen consistent rebounds across sentiment-oriented asset classes like equities, commodities and certain

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23-MAR-2016, WEDNESDAY

From the US, we get new home sales for February and expectations are for an increase after decreasing in January. Given the sharp fall in January, a modest increase in February appears more than normal to us. After all, the housing sector has held strong in recent months, despite the slowdown in economic growth during

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23-MAR-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) S&P 500 Primed for a Break, But When and How Far Will it Go? 2) How Can I Trade With Such Serious Risks Ahead? 1) S&P 500 Primed for a Break, But When and How Far Will it Go? Risk continues to run higher. Whether confidence is speculative appetite; equities, high-yield, carry, emerging market

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22-MAR-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, we get the preliminary manufacturing and service-sector PMI data for March from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. The manufacturing indices are forecast to increase in Germany and Eurozone, and to remain unchanged in France. The services figures are expected to show mixed results with the French figure

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22-MAR-2016, TUESDAY

1) Dollar Rebound Lacks Drive, So Does SPX Conviction 2) Central Bank Influence Waning Through Transparency, Credibility 1) Dollar Rebound Lacks Drive, So Does SPX Conviction Strong moves that perhaps struggle for solid fundamental footing will eventually cool and correct. For the USDollar, that seems to have happened – at least temporarily – in quick

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21-MAR-2016, MONDAY

From Eurozone, the preliminary consumer confidence for March is coming out and expectations are for the figure to have declined again, but by less than previously. The bloc’s current account balance for January is also due to be released, but no forecast is available. From the US, existing home sales for February are forecast to

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21-MAR-2016, MONDAY

1) Oil Prices Slip as Rig Count Steadies 2) Gold Prices Retreat 1) Oil Prices Slip as Rig Count Steadies U.S. oil prices dropped 1.4 percent andconsolidated around $39in the Asian afternoon,after a high of $41.20 on Friday. Consequently, the Canadian dollar strengthened to C$1.30 per USD. The number of active rigs counted by Baker

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18-MAR-2016, FRIDAY

From Canada, we get the CPI for February. The forecast is for a considerable slowdown in the headline rate, while the core rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.0%, in line with the BoC’s target. This suggests to us that the headline slowdown is mainly due to temporary effects. Nevertheless, since the Loonie strengthened

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18-MAR-2016, FRIDAY

1) Dollar Tumble Impressive Technically, Capable Fundamentally 2) Equity Climb Stretched, Dollar Dive Accelerates 3) USDOLLAR Has Eyes for 11730s 1) Dollar Tumble Impressive Technically, Capable Fundamentally The Dollar’s tumble this week carries serious weight. From the technical side, the USDollar Index broke its 10-month rising trend channel last week with the strong impact of

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17-MAR-2016, THURSDAY

The Bank of England kept rates unanimously unchanged at its previous policy meeting, with Ian McCafferty unexpectedly withdrawing his hike vote. The Bank officials noted that the next move in rates is likely to be a hike and that inflation is likely to remain below 1% until the end of the year. There is a

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17-MAR-2016, THURSDAY

1) After the Fed and ECB, A Slew of Central Banks Tune Policy 2) Swiss Franc Little Changed As SNB Keeps Policy at Status Quo 1) After the Fed and ECB, A Slew of Central Banks Tune Policy A move to ease policy by the ECB and Fed leveraged strong responses from the Euro and

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16-MAR-2016, WEDNESDAY

In the US, the indicator that could attract some attention ahead of the FOMC decision is the CPI for February. Expectations are for a considerable slowdown following January’s sharp rise. The headline rate jumped much higher than the core rate in January, which suggests that a large part of the acceleration may have been due

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16-MAR-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) How Will the Fed Decision and Forecast Effect the Dollar, SPX? 2) Gold Price Flat before Fed 3) Oil Price Rises on Lower Stockpile 1) How Will the Fed Decision and Forecast Effect the Dollar, SPX? Following the unexpected and volatile responses to the ECB’s and BoJ’s recent monetary policy upgrades, the tension surrounding

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15-MAR-2016, TUESDAY

In the US, retail sales for February are expected to have fallen after rising the previous month. The forecast is supported by a slowdown in February’s average hourly earnings, as well as declines in both the Conference Board and the U of M consumer sentiment indicators. This could bring the greenback under renewed selling interest.

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15-MAR-2016, TUESDAY

1) Impending Fed Decision Makes Dollar, Equity Trades Very Risky 2) Gold Price Drops before Fed Meeting 3) Oil Slips as Iran Defies Cut 1) Impending Fed Decision Makes Dollar, Equity Trades Very Risky The Dollar posted a tentative recovery from its key technical break this past week and the climb in risk trends stalled.

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14-MAR-2016, MONDAY

The PBoC Governor said over the weekend that no excessive policy easing is necessary to achieve the growth target, unless there is a big economic shock. However, after the Governor’s speech, Chinese industrial output and retail sales both slowed by more than expected, but fixed asset investment beat expectations. Despite the soft data overall for

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14-MAR-2016, MONDAY

1) Yen May Rise as Aussie Dollar Weakens on FOMC Pre-Positioning 2) Oil Prices Stabilize after the Lowest China IP Since 2008 1) Yen May Rise as Aussie Dollar Weakens on FOMC Pre-Positioning FX markets are in digestion mode at the start of the trading week, with the major currencies little-changed against the US Dollar.

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11-MAR-2016, FRIDAY

Germany’s final CPI for February confirmed its preliminary estimate and showed that inflation fell 0.2% yoy in Eurozone’s largest economy. The UK trade deficit for January is expected to have widened from the previous month. From Canada, we get the employment report for February. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, while the

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11-MAR-2016, FRIDAY

1) ECB, BoJ and Fed Signal the End of Monetary Policy Effectiveness 2) Beware Risk Trends after ECB Defines Ends of Monetary Policy 1) ECB, BoJ and Fed Signal the End of Monetary Policy Effectiveness The markets are not necessarily the target of monetary policy, but they are timely gauges for investors’ confidence in the

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10-MAR-2016, THURSDAY

Norway’s CPI rate for February is expected to have remained unchanged at +3.0% yoy, above the Norges Bank target of 2.5%. We believe that this is mainly due to the weakness in NOK during last year. As a result, we expect that policymakers and investors may not read too much into this, something that could

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10-MAR-2016, THURSDAY

1) ECB Decision Today as Contentious, Important as FOMC Next Week 2) GBP/USD Coils Below Key Resistance- Bullish Invalidation 1.3920 1) ECB Decision Today as Contentious, Important as FOMC Next Week Monetary policy is looking to revive heavy moves in the FX market. We are heading into a round of critical central bank policy meetings

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09-MAR-2016, WEDNESDAY

From the UK, we get industrial production for January. Expectations are for a rise, a turnaround from December. The forecast is supported by an increase in the manufacturing PMI for the same month as well. A rebound in IP could add some fuel to the pound’s recent recovery. From the US, we get wholesale inventories

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09-MAR-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Dollar and Stocks Hold Tech Boundaries, Rate Decisions Ahead 2) Oil Price Slide to Weak Demand as China Exports Drop 1) Dollar and Stocks Hold Tech Boundaries, Rate Decisions Ahead When fundamentals are light or inconclusive, technicals tend to exert greater influence on market development. With the Dollar moving on key support and equity

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08-MAR-2016, TUESDAY

In the US, the NFIB Business Optimism Index for February is coming out. Even though this indicator is not a major market mover, it is worth watching because of the Fed’s emphasis on employment, as small businesses employ the majority of people in the US. As for the speakers, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney

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08-MAR-2016, TUESDAY

1) Dollar At Support Without Spark Like FOMC to Decide Rebound/Break 2) Pound May Rise as BOE Governor Carney Weighs in on Brexit 1) Dollar At Support Without Spark Like FOMC to Decide Rebound/Break We kicked off Monday with the same trends that shaped the market’s course the week before. Risk appetite extended its buoyancy

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07-MAR-2016, MONDAY

Chinese officials laid out a 6.5% to 7% growth target for 2016, down from the previous objective of “around 7%”, as the world’s second largest economy struggles with softening domestic economic activity. The country also plans to expand its budget deficit limit to 3% of GDP from 2.3% in 2015, a step that would allow

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07-MAR-2016, MONDAY

1) China Growth Downgrade Scales down Effects of Strong US NFP 2) Euro Unlikely to Stay Lower Unless ECB Meeting Yields Big Bazooka 1) China Growth Downgrade Scales down Effects of Strong US NFP A strong U.S. Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday and rumours of China’s intervention into stock market last week sufficiently ignited risk

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04-MAR-2016, FRIDAY

Sweden’s industrial production is forecast to have risen in January, a turnaround from December. However, as the manufacturing PMI for the same month declined, we see increased downside risk to the forecast, perhaps to rise by less than expected. Canada’s trade deficit is expected to have widened in January, while the Ivey PMI for February is

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04-MAR-2016, FRIDAY

1) NFPs Presage Fed Forecasts for Dollar, Volatility for Equities 2) WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: 2-Month High Baffles Bears After Inventory Release 1) NFPs Presage Fed Forecasts for Dollar, Volatility for Equities A tumble in the Dollar and rally from risk-oriented assets sets the stage for Friday’s NFPs release. The US labor report is

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03-MAR-2016, THURSDAY

The UK service-sector PMI for February is forecast to have declined from the previous month. Bearing in mind that the manufacturing and construction PMIs both disappointed, any softness in the far larger service sector could add fuel to concerns that the British economic activity is losing momentum. As a result, this may bring the pound

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03-MAR-2016, THURSDAY

1) Pound Recovery May Continue as Markets Shrug Off Brexit Fears 2) Dollar Tumbles, Aussie Dollar Rallies, Gold and Oil Face Breaks 3) Oil Price Join Risk-On, Gold Attracts Flows before Events 1) Pound Recovery May Continue as Markets Shrug Off Brexit Fears UK PMI data headlines the European data docket. The catch-all Composite index

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02-MAR-2016, WEDNESDAY

From the US, we get the ADP employment report for February, two days ahead of the nonfarm payrolls. The ADP figure is expected to show that the private sector gained 190k jobs, less than it did in the previous month where the print hit 205k. Despite the decline, this is still quite close to the

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02-MAR-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) AUD/USD Surged after Strong Australian GDP Alters Dovish RBA Policy Bets 2) Copper Rises with Risk while Oil Bucks the Trend amid Large Build 1) AUD/USD Surged after Strong Australian GDP Alters Dovish RBA Policy Bets The AUD/USD surged after Australia’s fourth quarter GDP data beat economists’ forecasts. The headline year-on-year print was 3

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01-MAR-2016, TUESDAY

We get the final manufacturing PMIs for February from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. As usual the final forecasts are the same as the initial estimates, thus the market reaction on these news is usually limited, unless we have a huge revision from the preliminary figures. Germany’s unemployment for February and Eurozone’s

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01-MAR-2016, TUESDAY

1) Euro Presses EURUSD Decline 2) Oil Supported by Falling Output 3) Gold Prices Retest the $1263 High 1) Euro Presses EURUSD Decline It is a clash of the dominant fundamental themes for influence over the markets, and the result is greater volatility. Risk aversion is starting to yield some of its prominence to relative

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29-FEB-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, Eurozone’s preliminary CPI for February is expected to have slowed from the previous month. The German preliminary CPI rate for the same month unexpectedly fell into the negative territory, which increases the probability that the bloc’s figure may decline significantly as well. What is more, ECB’s preferred measure of inflation expectations,

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29-FEB-2016, MONDAY

1) Euro May Fall Further as Soft CPI Hints More ECB Easing Ahead 2) Oil Steady on Good US Data, Gold Flat into Eventful March 1) Euro May Fall Further as Soft CPI Hints More ECB Easing Ahead the preliminary set of February’s Eurozone CPI figures is in focus. The core year-on-year inflation rate is

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26-FEB-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, the German flash CPI is forecast to have slowed to 0% yoy in February from +0.4% yoy previously. A decline in the German inflation rate could indicate a slowdown in Eurozone’s preliminary CPI as well, due to be released next week. We believe that both figures will slow, as January’s accelerations

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26-FEB-2016, FRIDAY

1) Hope and Practicalities of Expecting Solutions from the G20 2) Euro, US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Inflation Data 3) Gold Solidifies amid Market Volatility 1) Hope and Practicalities of Expecting Solutions from the G20 Optimism and commitment to do more are inevitable themes to expect from the G-20 meeting in Shanghai. Yet, these platitudes

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25-FEB-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, the main event will be the 2nd estimate of the UK Q4 GDP. The forecast is for the revision to confirm the initial estimate. The first estimate showed that growth ticked up in Q4 from Q3, primarily driven by the service sector. However, the first estimate is compiled via the output

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25-FEB-2016, THURSDAY

1) How Long Does Risk Rebound Lift Stock, Brexit Pain Pummel Pound? 2) Be Wary of Rebound in Risk Assets and Cooler Volatility Indexes 1) How Long Does Risk Rebound Lift Stock, Brexit Pain Pummel Pound? EURUSD is the lightening rod for the most prominent fundamental themes influencing the market’s today, but that doesn’t mean

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24-FEB-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, Norway’s AKU unemployment rate for December is expected to have remained unchanged. The official unemployment rate for the same month increased and therefore we see the possibility for a rise in the AKU print as well. Nevertheless, we will treat the data as outdated since January’s official unemployment rate is already

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24-FEB-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Risk Slips, Dollar Gains but European Currencies Set the Pace 2) Euro and European Stability Increasingly At-Risk on Brexit Fears 3) No Reprieve for Oil while Gold Rallies on Haven Interests 1) Risk Slips, Dollar Gains but European Currencies Set the Pace Fundamentals drivers are starting to shift. Risk aversion was kicking in this

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23-FEB-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, the German Ifo survey for February is forecast to show that all three indices continued to decline for the 3rd consecutive month. This would be in line with the ZEW survey for the same month, which showed that business confidence in Eurozone’s growth engine continued to be dragged down by a

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23-FEB-2016, TUESDAY

1) Pound Drops on Brexit Headlines, USD Charged for Fed Speculation 2) How Far Do the Yen, Euro and Dollar Crosses Run on Carry Tides? 1) Pound Drops on Brexit Headlines, USD Charged for Fed Speculation The FX market opened to considerable volatility this week. Sterling was at the top of the market movers chart

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22-FEB-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, we get the preliminary manufacturing and service-sector PMI data for February from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. All the indices are forecast to have declined, with the only exception being the French service-sector PMI which is expected to have remained unchanged. We believe that weak global demand

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22-FEB-2016, MONDAY

1) EUR/USD Little Changed After Weaker February Markit Euro-Zone PMIs 2) Market Sentiment Unfazed as British Pound Drops on Brexit Fears 1) EUR/USD Little Changed After Weaker February Markit Euro-Zone PMIs The Euro was little changed (at the time this report was written) versus the US Dollar after today’s Flash Markit Eurozone PMI printed disappointing

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19-FEB-2016, FRIDAY

Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence for February is forecast to show that consumer sentiment sank even further into the negative territory. We also get Sweden’s official unemployment rate for January. From the UK, we get retail sales data for January. Both the headline and core figures are expected to have risen, a turnaround from December’s fall.

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19-Feb-2016, FRIDAY

1) Stocks Rally Stalls with Yen Crosses, EURUSD Ready to Run 2) Does Stimulus Leverage EU, Asian Shares Over US Counterparts? 1) Stocks Rally Stalls with Yen Crosses, EURUSD Ready to Run After a broad but uneven recovery, risk appetite has started to flag in the FX and capital markets. Equities, high-yield fixed income and

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18-FEB-2016, THURSDAY

During the European day, the French CPI is forecast to have accelerated somewhat in January. Sweden’s CPI and CPIF for January are also coming out. Both figures are forecast to have accelerated from the previous month. At its latest meeting, the Riksbank cut interest rates further into negative territory by more than expected in order

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18-FEB-2016, THURSDAY

1) Rebound in Dollar Cools, Equities Continue, EM Intensifies 2) Emerging Market Currencies Lead Global Volatility, Economy 3) Oil Soars as Producers Freeze Output 1) Rebound in Dollar Cools, Equities Continue, EM Intensifies The rebound in markets linked to investor sentiment is starting to diverge. Equities continued to rise with little check to momentum. However,

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17-FEB-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, we get the UK employment report for December. The unemployment rate is expected to have declined to 5.0% from 5.1%, which would mark the 6th consecutive fall and point to further tightening in the UK labor market. Nevertheless, investors’ eyes will most probably be on average weekly earnings which are forecast

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17-FEB-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Pound, US Dollar May Fall on UK Wages Data and FOMC Minutes 2) Are We Dealing with Trend, Range or Breakout Type Markets? 3) Chinese Lending Statistics Reached Highest Levels on Record 1) Pound, US Dollar May Fall on UK Wages Data and FOMC Minutes UK labor-market data headlines the economic calendar in European

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16-FEB-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, the main event will be the UK CPI for January. The forecast is for a slight acceleration in the headline figure, but a minor slowdown in the core reading, which reflects energy-related base effects. The decline in gasoline prices in January was less than it was last year, which could provide

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16-FEB-2016, TUESDAY

1) Broad but Questionable Rebound for USD, Yen Crosses and Equities 2) Risk Assets Ride on Oil Winning Streak while Gold Pares Gains 1) Broad but Questionable Rebound for USD, Yen Crosses and Equities We are once again faced with the eternal market question: is this a temporary correction or the foundation of a new

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15-FEB-2016, MONDAY

Asian equity markets rallied today, with the only exception being China’s Shanghai Composite 300, which closed somewhat below its opening mark after a week off. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped by more than 7%, but given that overnight data showed that the Japanese economy contracted by more than expected in Q4, we see the possibility that

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15-FEB-2016, MONDAY

1) AUD/USD Drops After China Trade Data Spurs RBA Rate Cut Bets 2) USD/JPY Falls, Nikkei 225 Gains After Japan GDP Statistics 1) AUD/USD Drops After China Trade Data Spurs RBA Rate Cut Bets The Australian Dollar fell against its US counterpart after China released its trade figures in Yuan terms. Exports fell at rate

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12-FEB-2016, FRIDAY

In the US, the main event will be the retail sales for January. Both the headline and the core figures are expected to have risen after a fall in December. In January, the labour market continued to tighten, energy prices fell further and cold weather across the country may have boosted sales. Also, the Conference

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12-FEB-2016, FRIDAY

1) Oil Bounces 12% Off A 12 Year Low 2) Stocks are Rebounding and Fresh Bear Flags are Forming 1) Oil Bounces 12% Off A 12 Year Low Oil has continued to fall further and more doubt that a sustainable move higher is on the way. Yesterday, the sell-off took on new life when a

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11-FEB-2016, THURSDAY

From the US, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 5th are expected to have declined, which would decrease the 4-week moving average somewhat as well. We have three speakers on Thursday’s agenda. Besides Fed Chair Yellen, Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves will hold a press conference following the monetary policy decision. ECB Governing Council member

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11-FEB-2016, THURSDAY

1) US Dollar May Find a Lifeline on Day Two of Yellen Testimony 2) Liquidity Can Leverage USDJPY Break Into Yen Cross Tumble 1) US Dollar May Find a Lifeline on Day Two of Yellen Testimony The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed as Asian stocks slumped in overnight trade, fueling the unwinding of carry trades funded

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10-FEB-2016, WEDNESDAY

EUR/USD surged on Tuesday to find resistance near the 1.1335 (R1) area. Following the break on the 3rd of February above the 1.0985 hurdle, which is the upper bound of the sideways range it had been trading since December, the short-term outlook has turned to positive. A decisive move above 1.1335 (R1) would confirm a

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10-FEB-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Trading Big Picture Themes Requires Different Approach, Strategy 2) Oil Stays Resilient despite Deep Plunge in Copper and Stocks 1) Trading Big Picture Themes Requires Different Approach, Strategy When we trade around event risk or on the basis of definitive technical patterns, our approach can be precise and timing measured. Yet, when we trade

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09-FEB-2016, TUESDAY

The UK trade deficit is forecast to have narrowed a bit in December from the previous month. However, this is usually not a major market mover. In the US, the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for December is due to be released and the forecast is for a slight decline in the number

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09-FEB-2016, TUESDAY

1) Yen May Recoil from 15-Month High on Yellen Pre-Positioning 2) Gold Jumps as Wide Risk Aversion Pressures Oil 1) Yen May Recoil from 15-Month High on Yellen Pre-Positioning The anti-risk Japanese Yen soared to a 15-month high while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars declined as risk aversion carried over from Wall Street

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08-FEB-2016, MONDAY

The US employment report showed that NFP increased by 151k in January, down from a revised 262k in December. However, the overall report signaled good news for the Fed, as the unemployment rate fell and average hourly earnings accelerated on a monthly basis. What is more, the participation rate ticked up, which confirms Chair Yellen’s

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08-FEB-2016, MONDAY

1) China Foreign Reserves Fall to Lowest Since May 2012 2) JPN225 Sideways Trade through Lunar New Year 1) China Foreign Reserves Fall to Lowest Since May 2012 Before the start of the trading week, the People’s Bank of China reported that foreign reserves totaled $3.23 trillion in January, higher than the $3.21 trillion forecast

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05-FEB-2016, FRIDAY

The market forecast is for nonfarm payrolls to increase 190k, down from the solid 292k print in December. Moreover, the unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 5.0%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to have accelerated on a monthly basis after staying flat in December. Although an unreliable predictor of the NFP

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05-FEB-2016, FRIDAY

1) Does Dollar Trend Channel Risk Reflect Fundamental Trend Threat? 2) Oil Volatility Overlooks Supply Factors   1) Does Dollar Trend Channel Risk Reflect Fundamental Trend Threat? Having experienced extraordinary volatility recently, traders eagerly await the settlement on trends. At the forefront heading into the final 24 hour trading session of the week is the

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04-FEB-2016, THURSDAY

Today, we get data only from the US. The preliminary Unit Labour Costs Index for Q4 is forecast to have accelerated from the previous quarter. Usually this indicator is not a major market mover. However given the Fed’s emphasis on the labor market and just one day ahead of the US employment report, it might

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04-FEB-2016, THURSDAY

1) Is USD Collapse Start of a Trend and Why Worry About the Pound? 2) Gold and Copper Charge Ahead as Oil Rebounds to Weak USD 1) Is USD Collapse Start of a Trend and Why Worry About the Pound? The FX market is clearly volatility prone. A dramatic tumble for the Dollar this past

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03-FEB-2016, WEDNESDAY

During the European day, we get the final service-sector PMIs for January from the countries we got the manufacturing data on Monday. The final forecasts for France, Germany and Eurozone are the same as the initial estimates, so no major reaction is expected. From the US, we get the ADP employment report for January, two

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03-FEB-2016, WEDNESDAY

1) Australian Dollar Steady After Caixin Chinese PMI Figures 2) Beware Unexpected Correlations Trading Patterns and Fundamentals   1) Australian Dollar Steady After Caixin Chinese PMI Figures The Australian Dollar did not display an outsized move against its US counterpart after Caixin released its Chinese economic statistics. The private sector’s PMI Services gauge showed a

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02-FEB-2016, TUESDAY

During the European day, the calendar is relatively light. The indicator that will probably attract most of investors’ attention is the UK construction PMI for January. The index is forecast to have declined to 57.5 from 57.8 in December, but given Monday’s unexpected improvement in the manufacturing PMI, we see the likelihood for a positive

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02-FEB-2016, TUESDAY

1) Markets Yearn for Dovish ECB, SNB After RBA Disappoints 2) Euro Little Changed on Solid German Jobs Data   1) Markets Yearn for Dovish ECB, SNB After RBA Disappoints The post-RBA response underscores sentiment’s ability to trump macroeconomic fundamentals in the current environment. While the Aussie Dollar initially rallied as rate cut chances ebbed,

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01-FEB-2016, MONDAY

During the European day, we get the final manufacturing PMIs for January from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole. As usual the final forecasts are the same as the initial estimates, thus the market reaction on these news is usually limited, unless we have a huge revision from the preliminary figures. The

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01-FEB-2016, MONDAY

1) US Dollar Needs Strong Data to Take Advantage of Volatile Sentiment 2) British Pound Lower as Manufacturing PMI Report Fails to Surprise   1) US Dollar Needs Strong Data to Take Advantage of Volatile Sentiment It’s become evident that the US Dollar has been gifted a soft sentiment environment that can easily be taken advantage

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29-JAN-2016, FRIDAY

During the European day, Eurozone’s preliminary CPI for December is expected to show an acceleration from the previous month. The German preliminary CPI for the same month accelerated on Thursday, which increases the possibilities for Eurozone’s figure to meet its forecast as well. Eurozone’s M3 money supply for December is coming out as well. In

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29-JAN-2016, FRIDAY

1) Silver May Be Ready to Resume Its Bullish Trend 2) Yen Drops Most In Year on BoJ Negative Rates   1) Silver May Be Ready to Resume Its Bullish Trend Silver prices had given up near to 50% of their gains from the rally which started on January 12 and the $13.72 level. While I

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