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14-NOV-2018, WEDNESDAY

In today’s other economic highlights, in today’s European session we get Germany’s preliminary release of its GDP growth rate for Q3, the Czech GDP growth rate for Q3, Sweden’s CPI rate for October, UK’s inflation rates for October and the second preliminary release of Eurozone’s GDP growth rate for Q3. In the American session we get the US CPI rates for October and later on the API weekly crude oil inventories figure. The figure gains on attention as oil prices slipped further yesterday and could provide for further volatility on oil prices. Should you be interested in further fundamentals and technical analysis regarding black gold, please refer to our oil weekly outlook due out later today. As for speakers, Riksbank deputy governor Janssen, BuBa president Weidman, BoE’s Ramsden and Fed’s Quarles speak.

The pound strengthened yesterday, as it was announced that a draft Brexit deal with the EU was reached. The deal is to be presented to the UK Cabinet on Wednesday in order to be signed off in order for an EU summit to be convened and the draft deal approved by EU leaders. Market attention may be zooming in the UK political stage, as Theresa May will need to convince the majority of parliament to back the deal and difficulties may arise, starting with her own party’s hard Brexiteers and the DUP. EU officials, seem to fear that any delay could increase the possibility of UK ministers and/or the UK parliament rejecting the deal. Volatility is expected to continue for the pound, as further Brexit headlines could continue to reel in and UK financial data are due out today.

The USD retreated or consolidated against a number of its major counterparts yesterday as the risk sentiment improved after the draft Brexit deal. The dollar index moved away from Monday’s 16 month high as the EUR and the GBP, which account for 70% of the weight, gained on Brexit, however other currencies also got some support. Analysts point out that the greenback’s retreat was caused by exterior factors and not a shift in appetite for USD or worsening US financial data. We could see the USD rebounding on the release of favorable financial data, expectations for further interest rate hikes and its role as a safe haven.